The Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN) has warned that the price of petrol in Nigeria could rise to as high as N2,000 per litre, while diesel may approach N3,000 per litre, if the ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to disrupt global oil markets.
The National President of PETROAN, Billy Gillis-Harry, made the projection in a statement on Monday, noting that escalating geopolitical tensions involving Israel, the United States and Iran are already pushing global crude oil prices to alarming levels and threatening stability in international energy supply chains.
According to him, with no clear end in sight to the hostilities, petroleum product prices in both international and domestic markets are likely to increase sharply in the coming days.
“PMS could rise close to N2,000 per litre while AGO may approach N3,000 per litre if the situation persists,” Gillis-Harry said.
He explained that sustained drone and missile attacks in the region have heightened risks to critical oil infrastructure and shipping routes, thereby creating uncertainty in global supply chains and pushing up crude oil prices.
The warning comes as global crude oil prices recently crossed the $100 per barrel mark, the highest level since July 2022, following intensified military exchanges linked to the ongoing conflict.
The surge in international crude prices has already triggered adjustments in pump prices across several filling stations in Nigeria, reflecting the strong link between global oil markets and domestic petroleum product pricing.
Gillis-Harry urged the Group Chief Executive Officer of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited, Bayo Ojulari, to urgently facilitate the commencement of production at Nigeria’s domestic refineries in order to cushion the impact of rising global fuel prices.
Specifically, he called for the immediate activation of the Area 5 plant at the Port Harcourt Refinery as well as the Warri Refinery, stressing that revamping government-owned refining facilities has become critical in the face of global supply uncertainties.
According to him, local refining could help moderate the country’s exposure to volatility in international petroleum markets, particularly because Nigeria possesses abundant crude oil resources under the custody of the NNPC.
“Revamping Nigeria’s refineries for immediate domestic production is critical. Local refining would reduce exposure to international market volatility,” he said.
The PETROAN president added that government-owned refineries could be less vulnerable to disruptions in global crude supply compared to privately owned refineries, which often rely on imported crude oil feedstock.
He warned that continued increases in fuel prices could have severe economic consequences for Nigeria, including worsening inflation, rising transportation costs and declining business activities.
“Further increases in petrol and diesel prices would worsen inflation, cause job losses, deepen economic hardship, increase transportation costs, and raise the prices of goods and services nationwide,” he said.
Gillis-Harry noted that petrol remains essential for daily transportation and household mobility, while diesel is a critical energy source for industries and manufacturing operations across the country.
As a result, he said any significant rise in fuel prices would inevitably ripple through the broader economy, affecting production costs, logistics expenses and consumer prices.
Despite the current concerns, the PETROAN president expressed optimism that the economic reforms being implemented by President Bola Tinubu would ultimately bring long-term relief to Nigerians and support sustainable economic growth.
He, however, stressed that urgent measures are required to strengthen Nigeria’s domestic refining capacity in order to protect the economy from future global energy shocks.
Industry analysts have repeatedly argued that expanding local refining capacity could improve energy security, reduce dependence on imported petroleum products and help stabilise supply within the domestic market, even though global crude oil prices would still influence pump prices.
For now, stakeholders say developments in the Middle East remain a critical factor that could determine the trajectory of global oil prices and, by extension, the cost of fuel in Nigeria and other oil-importing economies.
